The May Revise

As the Legislature and Governor enter the end game for the 2015-2016 budget, here is a review of provisions related to UC in the Governor’s latest budget proposal—the May revise, which is now being considered by the Legislature.

It appears likely that the final UC budget will have provisions that address access and affordability. What is missing are resources to ensure that the university can maintain quality. It is the hardest to quantify, the weakest politically, and is now the most seriously threatened.

This budget is another demonstration of the truism that the only way to restore access, affordability, and quality is through adequate State investment in public higher education. In spite of strong revenues to the State, the Governor’s budget falls well short of what is needed to reverse the negative trends in recent years. As it happens, it is well within the means of the citizens of the State to restore all of California public higher education to the levels of access, affordability, and quality enjoyed in 2000-2001. http://keepcaliforniaspromise.org/473424/reset-2015-16

The May revise budget summary is available at

http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2015-16/pdf/Revised/BudgetSummary/FullBudgetSummary.pdf

The UC part begins on page 28. Professor Chris Newfield (UCSB) has previously commented on the May revise at

http://utotherescue.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/the-may-budget-revision-uc-budget-goes.html.

Many aspects of the May revise as they relate to UC are contained in the agreement of the “Committee of Two”

http://budget.universityofcalifornia.edu/

now endorsed by the Regents

http://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may15/j2.pdf.

1) Systemwide tuition and fees for California resident students are to remain constant for two more years. Following that, modest increases comparable to the rate of inflation are allowed. On the other hand for non-resident students, tuition will increase by 8% in each of the next two years.

2) Increases in the UC base budget are to be the same as the Governor originally proposed, i.e. 4% per year ($119.5M for 2015-16) but are now continued through 2018-2019. This is much less than what the State should contribute to replace cuts since 2007 and is also substantially less than the needs identified in the UC proposed budget for 2015-2016. http://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/nov14/f1.pdf http://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/nov14/f1attach1.pdf

The May revise also proposes one time funds of $25M for deferred maintenance and $25M for energy efficiency projects.

3) The May revise contains a tepid and ambiguous recognition of a State obligation to UC pensions. One-time funds of $436M spread over three years (with $96M for 2015-16) are proposed. However, this is Proposition 2 money, which can be used only to reduce the UCRP unfunded liability (about $7.6B in the last annual report). The one-time payment is only modestly significant in the long run and has negligible impact on the University’s operating budget in the near term. This is because the University has not planned to increase the UCRP contribution rate above 8% for most employees and 14% for the employer. Contributions at this rate cover only the current year additional liability and some of the interest on the unfunded liability. I.e. at this point, the regular employer and employee payments are making no contribution to retiring the unfunded liability. Thus in near term years, the Proposition 2 money does not reduce the large negative impact on the UC operating budget from regular UCRP contributions. The Proposition 2 money could be framed as a replacement for or enhancement to UC’s own occasional ad hoc payments to reduce the unfunded liability, but these have been very controversial, and UC has not revealed any plans to make another such payment.

Unfortunately this modest one time contribution comes with permanent strings. In return UC is required to introduce yet another tier to UCRP that would apply to new employees. The new tier will mirror state law for other state employees. In this tier, UCRP eligible salaries are to be capped at the inflation indexed PEPRA/Social Security limit ($117k for the current year) rather than with the IRS limit of $265k currently used by UC. Employees in the new tier will have the option of either a defined benefit plan with the new cap and an add-on defined contribution plan to supplement the defined benefits or a fully defined contribution plan. It is this second option that is particularly troubling.

The relative merits of defined contribution and defined benefit plans were thoroughly evaluated and debated during the extended review that led to the 2010 reforms of the UCRP. The conclusion was that a defined benefit plan is the more advantageous option for both the University as an employer and for its employees.

The main concern is not so much that UC has cut a deal on this issue but rather that it has made such a poor deal. For very modest one-time money, it has agreed to make permanent changes to UCRP including offering a completely defined contribution option that will put at risk the whole of the defined benefit plan. (Chris Newfield has previously made similar comments as mentioned above.) In addition the closed process by which this agreement between the Governor and the President was reached has undermined shared governance and collective bargaining.

4) UCOP has stated that the Governor has agreed not to veto additional appropriations for UC that come out of the legislative process. The University is asking legislators for additional funds to increase California resident enrollment.

5) There are several areas in which the President has committed UC to the implementation of additional efficiencies. These include transfers, time-to-degree, advising, and use of technology. Some of these Presidential promises relate to topics that are squarely within the authority of the Academic Senate, and all of them would normally be addressed through shared governance.

One thought on “The May Revise

  1. What would happen to Social Security if payments into Social Security were made optional? Within a short time, Social Security would be bankrupt — the system is dependent on new money flowing in.

    If step 3 above is implemented for the UC pension fund, this is likely what will happen with the UC pension system — effectively, it will be bankrupt within little more than a decade.

    UC made an enormous mistake years ago when it discontinued employee contributions to the pension system for an extended time. This will be another short-sighted mistake in that same tradition — and by the time it is realized to be a mistake, it will be too late to correct.

    As new UC employees under the proposed 2016 tier become aware that little or nothing will be left for them in the UC pension system, more and more of them will jump over to the defined contribution plan. Money flowing into the UC pension fund will be reduced to a trickle, yet money flowing out to UC retirees will still be gushing out in abundance.

    In addition, as long-time UC employees realize how precarious the future of the UC pension fund has become, more and more of them will opt for the lump sum payout, thereby depleting the fund even more rapidly.

    The only scenarios in which the UC pension fund are sustainable under these circumstances involve absurdly optimistic estimates of investment performance over a very long time. Yet, with the long term challenges the American economy faces — ballooning deficits combined with the costs of an aging population (of which I am a part) — such scenarios are virtually assured to be sheer fantasies.

    The writer above makes a few points that are right on the money (literally):

    “The May revise contains a tepid and ambiguous recognition of a State obligation to UC pensions. One-time funds of $436M spread over three years (with $96M for 2015-16) are proposed…. The one-time payment is only modestly significant in the long run and has negligible impact on the University’s operating budget in the near term…”

    [absolutely correct]

    “Employees in the new tier will have the option of either a defined benefit plan with the new cap and an add-on defined contribution plan to supplement the defined benefits or a fully defined contribution plan. It is this second option that is particularly troubling.

    “The relative merits of defined contribution and defined benefit plans were thoroughly evaluated and debated during the extended review that led to the 2010 reforms of the UCRP. The conclusion was that a defined benefit plan is the more advantageous option for both the University as an employer and for its employees.

    “The main concern is not so much that UC has cut a deal on this issue but rather that it has made such a poor deal. For very modest one-time money, it has agreed to make permanent changes to UCRP including offering a completely defined contribution option that will put at risk the whole of the defined benefit plan….”

    [Again, absolutely correct, though somewhat understated.]

    If step 3 above is approved, and if you’re in the mood to see how a pension fund can be destroyed quickly, get yourself some popcorn (if you can still afford it), sit back, and watch the show.

    It’s not a long show — you’ll have plenty of time left when it is over….

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